HomeWorldRain event more likely due to climate crisis, causing floods in Pakistan

Rain event more likely due to climate crisis, causing floods in Pakistan

According to World Weather, floods that engulfed large parts of Pakistan last month left thousands homeless and nearly 1,500 people died in “one in 100 years of rain” event, which is many times more likely to be caused by the climate crisis, according to World Weather. was likely. Attribution (WWA) analysis. The WWA, a network of globally leading climate scientists, could not, however, determine how the crisis made the event possible due to variations in the outcome of climate models.

The WWA analyzed maximum rainfall for a period of five days for the worst-affected provinces of Sindh and Balochistan, Pakistan, and 60 days from June to September, to arrive at its conclusions. “First, looking at the trends of observations only, we found that the 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan provinces is now about 75% more intense in climates that do not warm by 1.2 °C, compared to 60 days over the entire basin. Rainfall is now about 50% more intense, which means that such heavy rains are now more likely,” the WWA said in a statement on Thursday.

It added that there are large uncertainties in these estimates due to the high variability in rainfall in the region, and observed changes could have a variety of drivers, including but not limited to climate change.

The WWA looked at trends in climate models with and without human-induced increases in greenhouse gases to determine the role of human-induced climate change. “The scientists found that modern climate models are not fully capable of simulating monsoon rainfall in the Indus River Basin, as the region lies on the western edge of the monsoon and its rainfall patterns are highly variable from year to year. As a result, they could not accurately measure the impact of climate change, as is possible in other studies of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves.”

A member of the WWA, Friedrich Otto, cited the evidence and said that it suggests that climate change played an important role in the phenomenon, although the analysis did not allow to determine how big the role was. “That’s because it’s a region with very different weather from one year to the next, which makes it difficult to see long-term changes in observed data and climate models,” Otto said.

“This means that the mathematical uncertainty is large. However, not all results are equally likely to be within the range of uncertainty. What we saw in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years. This This is also in line with historical records showing that there has been a dramatic increase in heavy rainfall.”

Pakistan received three times the normal rainfall in August, making it the most rain since 1961. Sindh and Balochistan received the heaviest rainfall ever in August, with between seven and eight times the normal monthly rainfall.

On 25 August, Pakistan declared a national emergency, estimating initial damages of over US$30 billion.

The floods followed extreme heat stress in India and Pakistan. The WWA said in May that the March to April spring heatwave spell in both countries was about 30 times more likely to be caused by human-caused climate change.

The results of their rapid analysis showed that the unusually long and early-onset heatwave spell in India and Pakistan is very rare, likely to occur only once in 100 years.

The flood analysis of the WWA was released days after the inauguration of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Tuesday. Climate change experts highlighted at a briefing on Thursday how rising global inflation and climate impacts are affecting the most vulnerable countries. The UNGA is expected to set the tone on the urgency of compensating for loss and damage or compensation for the effects of extreme climate change events.

Speaking at the briefing, Ulka Kelkar, Director (Climate Program), World Resources Institute, said that this monsoon floods in Northeast India and Bangladesh do not even make it to the top climate events this year. “What happened in Pakistan cannot be seen anymore. One in seven people in Pakistan have become homeless. You can no longer deny that the issue of loss and damage and adaptation will be central.”

Kelkar said that the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) was deeply disappointed on the matter. “We heard last year that there would be delays in deliveries of $100 billion promised from developed countries and this was before the Ukraine crisis. Now delivery seems even further away. From the point of view of developing country, there are two things- today there is an urgent need of hard finance and we need acceptance and solidarity on loss and damage from developed countries.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spoke about adaptation on Wednesday. “G20 countries are responsible for 80% of emissions. They are also suffering the effects of record droughts, fires and floods – but climate action appears to be flat. If one-third of the G20 countries were in the water today, as it may be tomorrow, it would probably be easier for them to agree on drastic cuts in emissions. All countries – led by the G20 – must boost their national emissions reduction targets every year until we limit the increase in world temperature to 1.5 degrees.

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