Officials of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from more areas along with the north-west parts of the country is not expected for at least the next five to seven days.
Last Tuesday, the IMD had announced the onset of withdrawal of monsoon from southwest Rajasthan and small parts of Kutch. But there is a possibility of some rain in Kutch in the coming days, the weather model indicated.
For the last four days, the line of withdrawal of monsoon has been passing through Khajuwala, Bikaner, Jodhpur and Naliya.
While announcing the withdrawal of monsoon this year, the officials of the Meteorological Department had also said that the dry season will remain. Delhi, Chandigarh and Punjab. But the forecast failed with heavy rains lashing Delhi, Gurgaon and Noida on Thursday, prompting local administrations in the national capital and adjoining areas to announce closure of schools and encourage work from home as roads flooded. did.
On Delhi’s rains, officials of Regional Meteorological Centre, New Delhi said, “Presence of a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Madhya Pradesh along with a Western Disturbance and a Trough in the mid-tropospheric levels, is a sign of a low pressure system.” Remains, Delhi and adjoining areas received heavy rains.”
The same cyclonic circulation, which will remain over the same area for another two days, and due to the Western Disturbance, will cause heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.4 mm to 204 mm in 24 hours) over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. All of which remain on an “Orange” alert on Saturday and Sunday and a “Yellow” alert until September 27. Areas of Northeast India also remain on “Yellow” alert during the next five days.
Like the onset of monsoon over Kerala, the IMD announces the onset of monsoon withdrawal only when its own key criteria are met. These include reversal of wind patterns and the formation of an anticyclone system at 850 ha pascals (hPa), cessation of rainfall for five consecutive days, drop in moisture levels or dry conditions in areas of northwest India. “However, on September 20, the anti-cyclone was absent though the rains had subsided and the moisture level had dropped,” a senior IMD official said.
According to the Extended Range Forecast released on Thursday, North Rajasthan is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the period 23-29 September. And it raises doubts whether the Meteorological Department has announced the withdrawal of monsoon in haste.
In recent years, the onset of monsoon withdrawal has been delayed, mostly realized in late September or early October. The normal date for starting withdrawals is September 17.
According to IMD records for 2012-2022, the withdrawal of monsoon from northwest India occurred only in the first half of September during three years – 2013 (9 September), 2015 (September 4) and 2016 (15 September). Two of the most delayed monsoon withdrawals in the last 11 years were in 2019 (October 9) and 2021 (October 6).